EGYPT – 3 March

Status:  AMBER

Islamic terror cells, some of them with foreign connections, are broken up occasionally by the security forces.  Yet there are no indications of a major group emerging along the lines of the Islamic Group (IG), which waged a broad terror campaign targeting the government and Westerners in the 1980s and 1990s before being crushed by security forces.

The most significant recent arrests occurred in November, when some 25 militants were arrested in Mansoura Province, northeast of Cairo.  Firearms, ammunition and explosives were seized.  True to form, authorities provided virtually no details.  According to local media, the cell was targeting US Navy ships in the Suez Canal as well as Israeli pilgrims visiting the tomb of a Jewish holy man.  By one account, the cell had ties to IG, although that could mean fugitive veterans of the group overseas.

In July 2009, the Interior Ministry announced the arrest of 25 Egyptians and a Palestinian belonging to a terror cell that allegedly planned to attack foreign ships in the Suez Canal and oil pipelines to Israel.  The group is said to have kept in touch with “terrorist elements” abroad via the Internet, and allegedly was awaiting orders to strike from an al-Qaida commander outside Egypt.

With its foreign connections, university-educated members and strategic targeting, the July 2009 cell appears to have been one of the most dangerous to emerge in Egypt in recent years.  The Interior Ministry said that the cell had links to the Palestinian Army of Islam (PAI), a murky terror gang based in the Gaza Strip that has been accused of involvement in recent low-grade bombings in Egypt.

In February 2009, a homemade bomb exploded near the famous Khan al-Khalili bazaar, killing a 17-year-old French girl on a class trip and injuring 24 other people, including 13 other French nationals, a German and three Saudis.  The device had been planted under a bench near the al-Hussein mosque next to the bazaar.

It is not clear if the attack ever will be solved.  Thirteen months after the bombing, three Belgian, two Palestinian and two Egyptian suspects were released for lack of evidence.  By some accounts, five French, British and Egyptian citizens still are being held in connection with the attack.  Some of the suspects may have had ties to the PAI and trained in Gaza.   

Of several other cells broken up in recent years, the one that inflicted the most damage was the Abdullah Azzam Brigades (AAB).  In April 2005, a suicide bomber from the cell killed three tourists, two Frenchmen and an American, and wounded 18 other people at the Khan al-Khalili bazaar.  Thirteen days later, the leader of the cell staged a suicide bombing in a central Cairo square in which four tourists—two Israelis, an Italian, and a Swede—were wounded.  A few hours later, the leader’s sister and fiancee opened fire on a tour bus near the Egyptian Museum, lightly wounding two Austrians.  Both women died at the scene in a murder-suicide.

The bottom line is that Egypt faces serious Islamic terrorism risks for the foreseeable future.  Although the determined and ruthless security forces have a grip on militancy, they are unable to break up every cell before it strikes.

Risk Mitigation

Personnel may undertake routine travel to Cairo, Alexandria and other major cities outside of the Sinai Peninsula but should curtail time spent at tourist sites and Western hangouts.  Those on the ground for more than a few days should avoid establishing patterns and be alert for surveillances.  Western—particularly American and British—companies should maintain strict access controls and other bomb-defense measures.

Forays to Luxor and other points in southern Egypt should be undertaken by air.  Qena, Minya and Asyut provinces, which straddle the Nile north of Luxor, are hotbeds of Islamic fundamentalism and should be avoided completely.

Cairo Hotel Security

No business-class hotel in Cairo has serious defenses against suicide vehicle-bombing, to say nothing of Mumbai-style assaults by heavily armed terrorists. 

Perhaps because it has been years since there was a devastating Islamic terror attack in the capital, armed policemen usually are not deployed in the driveways of major hotels.  When they are, the setup seems to involve a single officer with an AK-47 standing behind a portable steel plate as colleagues chat or snooze in a vehicle.

It comes down to corporate personnel being reduced to selecting a hotel with exterior defenses that, while flimsy, might cause potential assailants to choose another target.  In that light, the Grand Hyatt is the best choice.  Its location on the tip of El Manial island in the Nile makes it accessible only by bridge, at the foot of which an unarmed attendant is stationed at a crowd barrier on wheels.  Once the barrier is moved, vehicles must drive approximately 20 yards across the bridge to a speed bump just ahead of a heavy drop-arm gate.  The gate is manually raised by an unarmed attendant after a separate unarmed attendant circles the vehicle with a sniffer dog.  Just beyond the drop-arm gate is a Delta barrier that is not in use.  The driveway exit features an identical manually operated drop-arm gate.

The lobby entrance is manned by several personnel, often including a lightly armed officer from the Tourism and Antiquities Police.  Incoming personnel are required to put their luggage through a scanner and to walk through a metal detector.

Another relatively acceptable option is the Marriott Cairo, located on Zamalek island in the Nile.  Although fronted by a busy road in a built-up area, the property has a reasonable setback.  At the driveway entrance, bollards and a gate confront incoming vehicles.  The bollards are lowered and the gate raised electronically after an unarmed attendant circles the vehicle with a sniffer dog and looks inside the trunk, which the driver is required to open.  The driveway exit’s sole obstacle is a tire-shredder, which would not be sufficient to stop a determined assailant.

The lobby entrance features a walk-through metal detector and baggage x-ray machine that attendants do not allow people to circumvent.  What is more, the lobby is in a building separate from the two high-rises and a low-rise building bordering the outdoor pool where guest rooms are located.

The third choice in terms of security is the Sofitel El Gezirah (formerly a Sheraton), which sits on the tip of Zamalek island.  Both ends of the driveway are manned by unarmed attendants who circle incoming vehicles with sniffer dogs.  Immediately in front of where the dogs do their work are heavy metal barriers that slide away at the touch of a button.  The barriers, however, are left open much of the time.  This is mitigated somewhat by the fact that the driveway is sunken, in addition to being lined with service buildings that insulate the circular tower where guests stay.  The lobby, which has a walk-through metal detector at its entrance, is in a structure adjoining the tower.

The Conrad has an adequate setback, but has comparatively weak driveway security.  The Semiramis InterContinental, Four Seasons, Ramses Hilton and the Sheraton Cairo all sit dangerously close to the street.

At any hotel, guests should book rooms facing away from any road or parking lot and as far from the lobby as possible.

Hizbollah Terror Connection

It appears that Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia terror complex, played an integral role in a terror cell that was broken up in Egypt in April 2009.  Given the group’s skill at staging bombings and other attacks, the implications were extremely serious.   

Egyptian authorities announced the arrest of 49 cell members said to be monitoring the Suez Canal, Egypt’s border with Gaza and tourist-related entities in the Sinai Peninsula.  Some of the suspects were said to be foreigners.

Hizbollah for years had maintained a presence in northern Sinai in connection with its close operational ties with the Hamas regime in Gaza.  That Hizbollah would plot or support attacks on Egyptian soil was unprecedented.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbollah, quickly confirmed that one of his operatives was among the men rounded up by Egyptian authorities.  But he said the operative was trying to get military equipment into Gaza, and denied that Hizbollah was trying to destabilize Egypt.

The Egyptian regime and Iran-allied Hizbollah have a long history of hostility, and tensions between them boiled over in late 2008 when the latter openly accused Cairo of supporting Israel’s siege of Gaza and called for the Egyptian people to rise up against it.  It cannot be ruled out that Hizbollah will support attacks in Egypt in the future.

Singleton Terror Attacks

Police arrested a 49-year-old tailor on suspicion of trying to bomb a Cairo synagogue on 21 February.  They described him as a career criminal previously involved in violence, drug addiction and forgery.  He also may have had ties to Islamic extremists.

The suspect threw a suitcase containing four containers of gasoline and a liter of sulfuric acid at the synagogue from a hotel across the street, but the device burst into flames on the sidewalk, causing no injury and minimal damage.

Singletons occasionally stage primitive attacks in the Egyptian capital, mostly against Westerners, but Jewish targets also are at risk.  In February 2009, a local man stabbed in the face an American teacher in Cairo’s famous Khan al-Khalili bazaar.  The victim, a teacher based in Alexandria, suffered superficial injuries, as did two Egyptians who came to his aid.  Police arrested a suspect who had spent time in a mental hospital.  He reportedly told them that he hated foreigners and was especially angry over recent Israeli attacks in Gaza.

While singletons can strike at any time, they tend to lash out when tensions spike between the West and the Muslim World, or Israel and the Muslim World.

Sinai Militants

Bedouin tribesmen in the northern Sinai Peninsula on 3 February staged an ambush of a police van, shooting dead two officers and freeing eight of their relatives who had been arrested and were being driven to court.  Four other policemen and the driver of the van were wounded.

Authorities claimed that all but one of the escaped prisoners were recaptured later in the day.  There was no word about whether the gunmen had been caught.  The ambush occurred some 50 miles west of el-Arish.

The Bedouin tribes of Sinai consider mainland Egyptians outsiders, and traditionally have resented efforts by Cairo to control them.  Complicating matters, the region is extremely poor, giving rise to enormous smuggling rackets.  The long coasts, rugged terrain and sparse population of the peninsula are well suited for illegal trade.

One reason Egyptian authorities have not launched an all-out crackdown on the smuggling of weapons and commercial goods into the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip is fear of upsetting a critical local industry that brings a degree of social peace.  As it is, tribesmen and the security forces periodically engage in shootouts, usually when rackets are broken up.

Nothing has been heard recently from al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (Monotheism and Holy War – TJ), a militantly Islamist Bedouin movement that staged a series of deadly bombings and other attacks against tourist targets in Sinai between 2004 and 2006.  The group may have had some operational contact with Global Jihad but largely appears to have been motivated by local grievances.

In any case, the ferocious crackdown by the security forces precipitated by the wave of terrorism only exacerbated chronic tensions between the Bedouin and authorities. 

Sinai should be avoided, especially the more volatile north, which generally is defined as everything above the Cairo-Nekhl-Taba road.  If resorts must be visited, they should be south of that road and have armed security.  Resort areas should be reached by air.

It should be noted that the government restricts travel north of the Cairo-Nekhl-Taba road from el-Arish to the Gaza border. 

Street Crime

Despite difficult economic conditions, petty and violent crime rates are not high in Cairo and other cities.  Still, serious precautions are in order.

The main concern is pocket-picking.  Although perpetrators usually are not highly skilled, all too many foreigners have wallets and other valuables plucked on crowded streets, at tourist attractions and in outdoor markets and other shopping venues.  Meanwhile, mobile phones, cameras, shopping bags and other attractive items set down and left unwatched in shops, cafes and other public places can disappear in the bat of an eye.

Commonsense precautions go a long way toward reducing risks.  Personnel should remain alert constantly.  Concealment devices should be used to carry large amounts of cash and credit cards.  On top of that, men should place wallets in front trouser or inner jacket pockets while women should keep a firm grip on handbags.  Attractive items should be kept in sight and in reach constantly in shopping, drinking and eating venues.

There are sporadic instances of foreigners being targeted by thieves who snatch valuables from a passing car or motorcycle.  Women’s purses are the chief target.  Men and women can reduce risks by walking as far from the curb as possible.  Women should carry handbags on the side farthest from the street.  Handbags should be worn over a single shoulder, so that if they are snatched victims will not be dragged and potentially seriously hurt.

Mugging is rare.  Personnel, however, should take the precaution of sticking to well-beaten paths when walking after sunset.  Due to severe sexual harassment risks, women should not walk alone day or night.

Policemen have standing orders to look out for the welfare of foreigners, although even at major tourist attractions not all of them are competent English-speakers.  The phone number for the Tourist and Antiquities Police is 122, with an English speaker always answering.

Scams

Approaches by overly friendly locals on the street should be greeted with a cold shoulder.  It is extremely common for touts for tourist-oriented shops to fish for victims on the street.  They strike up conversations, telling tall tales such as having a relative in the mark’s home country or a sister who is about to get married.  As soon as the mark enters the shop, he or she is offered tea and sometimes a gift.  The important thing for victims to realize is that no matter how far they are sucked in, it is never too late to take back control of the situation simply by saying “no thank you” and leaving.

More generally, personnel should be deeply skeptical of “special prices.”  A merchant’s initial price should be met with a counteroffer of perhaps 40 percent.      

Jewelry, precious stones, carpets and other high-end items only should be purchased in the company of a trusted expert.

Money Matters

Although ATM use generally is secure, it is strongly recommended that personnel use only cash machines inside of banks and business-class hotels.

Credit-card fraud is not common, but does occur.  Personnel should play it safe by limiting charges to business-class hotels and other elite establishments, and even then watching their cards closely during transactions.

Personnel should pay close attention whenever they receive change.   

Sexual Harassment

Women and adolescent girls of all backgrounds face severe sexual harassment risks throughout Egypt.  Prolonged, blatant staring is extremely common.  Whistles, crude comments and obscene gestures are routine.  Women often are followed on the street.  Worst of all, so-called grope groups, in which women are surrounded and fondled by groups of young men, are becoming more common.

Sexual harassment can occur anywhere, anytime.  Women walking with other women and even with male relatives or colleagues are not necessarily immune.

The best response to staring, crude remarks and gestures is to ignore them, as difficult as that can be.  To respond not only risks escalating the situation, but gives a sense of power to the offender.

If followed, the appropriate response is to remain calm, and move at a normal but purposeful pace to the nearest business establishment or other safe venue.  If the harasser does not go away, the police and a trusted male colleague should be called to the scene.  In particularly harrowing situations, victims should remain in constant phone contact with the person coming to their aid.

As for group gropes, women should scream and resist with punches and kicks, and do their best to avoid being pushed into an alley or doorway.  As brutal as such assaults can be, it should be kept in mind that they rarely escalate into rape.               

Women can reduce – but not eliminate – sexual harassment risks by maintaining a quiet demeanor.  They should wear loose clothing that covers as much flesh as possible (a headscarf is not necessary).  Wearing dark sunglasses is strongly recommended, because it conveys an aloof attitude and also is a safeguard against eye contact with local men, something that should be avoided at all costs.  In addition, women should carry a mobile phone at all times, with numbers for the police and trusted male colleagues on speed-dial.

Women simply should not talk to Egyptian men, since what might seem like a normal verbal exchange to them could be perceived by the other party as a sexual come on.  Likewise, women should deflect any attempts by Egyptian men at chit-chat.

Generally, women should not circulate alone on foot or in a taxi, day or night.  Even in pairs and small groups, they should stick to well-beaten paths.  Under no circumstances should they allow themselves to be in an isolated place with a local man.

Traffic Safety

Egypt’s incredibly unsafe roads far and away present the biggest risks to corporate personnel in Egypt. The situation is dangerous everywhere, but especially in overcrowded Cairo.  Drivers tailgate, speed, pay no heed to lanes, cut across multiple rows of traffic to make sudden turns, travel the wrong way on one-way streets, and ignore signs and traffic lights.  Making matters worse, traffic lights in many cases do not work, and the traffic police rarely attempt to impose order.

The bottom line is that pedestrians should be extremely careful when crossing the street.  Anyone traveling by vehicle should sit in the back seat and wear a seatbelt.

Getting Around

Chauffeur-driven company vehicles are the best option for getting around. The fallback is to rent a vehicle and driver through a business-class hotel, reputable car rental agency or the Egyptian Tourist Authority.  Personnel not satisfied with the driver they are presented should not hesitate to ask for another.

Registered taxis are ubiquitous in Cairo, and are easily hailed.  Since many are unsafe jalopies, personnel should seek out recent vintage mid-size sedans painted white with a long stripe of black checks on the sides.  Many of these are Hondas and Chevrolets, but not all.  Fares always are negotiated up front, with 30 pounds ($5.47) sufficient for going three miles or so in heavy traffic.  Since foreigners routinely are gouged, it is strongly recommended to have hotel staff or trusted locals summon cabs, relay destinations and negotiate fares.  If personnel have no alternative to arranging a ride on their own, they should make sure they fix the price in no uncertain terms before getting in the vehicle.

Many cabbies speak English fairly well.  Yet many do not, meaning that it is prudent to carry a map and pen to convey destinations and write down fares.          

Egyptian cabbies are notorious for sexually harassing female passengers, going so far as to stop short deliberately in order to reach into the back seat for a feel.  The bottom line is that women should not take taxis alone during the day, let alone after sunset when harassment risks escalate dramatically.  Women who absolutely must take taxis alone during the day should sit in the back seat and avoid all chit-chat with the driver.  Women who travel alone in taxis should relay the license plate number and a description of the vehicle and driver to a trusted male by mobile phone, and make sure the driver sees them doing it.  In the event of harassment, they should call a trusted male and get out of the vehicle at the first safe opportunity.

Although some Westerners do it, self-driving cannot be recommended.  Not only are accident rates sky high, but crashes often cause hostile crowds to gather.  Drivers who are in accidents are required by law to wait until the police arrive, although the appropriate thing to do is to leave the scene if there is a clear physical threat.

There are sporadic cases of small-time criminals staging fender-benders for the purpose of stealing valuables when marks get out to inspect the damage.  Meanwhile, attractive items left visible in parked vehicles frequently are stolen.  Nothing of conceivable value to anyone should be left visible in a parked or moving vehicle.      

In a rare carjacking, an American man one day in late 2009 was signaled to stop by a man in a police uniform with an AK-47 near one of the international schools in Maadi, the wealthy suburb south of Cairo.  The American was ordered to get out, and the man in the police uniform jumped in and drove off.  The American was not harmed, but the incident represented a worrisome precedent. 

Main inter-city roads are in reasonably good condition, but fatal accidents are common due to unsafe local driving customs, broken down cars and stray animals.  Every effort should be made to finish interior travel by sunset.

Personnel may ride the Cairo metro provided they guard against petty thieves.  Buses, especially minibuses, should be avoided due to overcrowding and mechanical safety issues.

Regime Snooping

In business-class hotels and other venues, government intelligence operatives gather information about foreign travelers.  The purpose usually is to find out who the person is and what they are doing in Egypt, although theft of proprietary information cannot be ruled out as a motive.  It is not uncommon for password-protected laptops left unattended in hotel rooms to be hacked, or briefcases and baggage to be rifled.  To play it safe, personnel should bring no sensitive documents, software or other materials into the country and should be circumspect in their written and telephone communications.             

Evening Entertainment 

Bars and nightclubs are relatively secure.  Because there have been cases of drink-drugging in the past, personnel should take the precaution of keeping their drinks in sight constantly and not accepting drinks from strangers.

Public intoxication is a crime in Egypt and usually results in a short jail sentence.   Egyptian authorities generally are good about informing the appropriate consulate that a Westerner has been incarcerated, though the process may take a few days, and the offender often is released at about the time the consulate is advised of the situation. 

Airport Transfer

Some first-time visitors are taken aback by the crowds and commotion in Cairo International Airport, located nine miles northeast of the city center.  Although theft is not rampant, it is strongly recommended that luggage and other valuables be kept in sight and in reach constantly.

Incoming personnel from many developed countries can obtain visas on arrival; there are ATMs available to cover payment.

It is strongly recommended that incoming personnel pre-arrange a pickup by corporate or hotel car.  Drivers usually escort their passengers through customs and into the public area, greatly reducing the stress of navigating one’s passage through the bustling facility.

Those arriving without advance ground transportation arrangements should book a pre-paid airport taxi for the trip to the city at one of the plainly visible booths in the arrivals hall.  Rides to city center hotels cost about 75 pounds ($13.67) in a normal taxi, and considerably more in a Mercedes or other luxury sedan.  Passengers are escorted to vehicles by attendants who give them tickets that are checked by police at the exit to the parking area.  Under no circumstances should travelers patronize gypsy cabs.  

Departing passengers should arrive two hours prior to takeoff since check-in and passport-control lines can get backed up.  It is important to find out in advance which terminal one’s flight departs from, and to budget sufficient time for traveling to the airport on jammed urban highways.

Adventure Travel

Adventure travel to southwestern Egypt, where some roads are off-limits to foreigners, should be avoided.  Eleven foreign tourists and eight Egyptian guides were kidnapped 19 September 2008 by Sudanese bandits on the Gilf al-Kebir plateau, near the Sudanese frontier.  The group included five Italians, five Germans and a Romanian.  Gilf al-Kebir, known for its prehistoric cave paintings, is popular with adventure travelers.

The hostages were released 29 September 2008, a day after Sudanese forces reportedly killed the leader of the kidnapping gang and five of his cohorts and captured two others.  The two captured suspects were said to have told authorities that the hostages were in Chad.  It is not clear whether a ransom was paid for their release.  The kidnappers had been demanding €6 million.

Politics

Egypt today is a pent-up, discontented country.  Poverty is widespread.  Corruption, cronyism, red tape and inefficiency prevail.  Private enterprise and democracy are severely stunted.  The education system is appalling.  The population has reached 79 million, and continues to surge.  Muslims in droves are turning toward fundamentalist Islam and away from a modern world view.

The regime of President Hosni Mubarak has no answers to chronic problems.  What is not in doubt, however, is its control of the country.

Mubarak rules by dint of the power of his security forces.  By extension, the constitution has been rigged to ensure that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) maintains its lock on parliament and the presidency.  Elections at all levels are a sham, and the ruling clique has the bureaucracy and judiciary under its thumb.   

It has been 29 years since Mubarak, now 81, took over upon the assassination of President Anwar Sadat,  He has not said whether he will seek another presidential term in 2011, but he widely is believed to be positioning his 45-year-old son, Gamal, to succeed him at some point. 

Gamal is an enthusiastic modernizer who has a strong following among the regime’s more open-minded business cronies.  Yet crucially, he lacks a military background.  He also is untested politically, and epitomizes the elite that the public loathes.

The bottom line is that the NDP is all but certain to win the next presidential election.  Ayman Nour, of the pro-Western Ghad (Tomorrow) Party, who came in a distant second in the country’s first competitive presidential election in 2005, is again likely to serve as window dressing.

If the senior Mubarak were to die or become incapacitated, power officially would pass to the speaker of the lower house of parliament until a presidential election could be held in 60 days.  The current speaker is Ahmed Fathi Sorour, a NDP stalwart who carries considerable weight.  Yet real power during a period of interim rule would be held by members of Mubarak’s inner circle, especially those from the security forces.  Intelligence Ministry Director Omar Suleiman, 75, almost certainly would play a central role.

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), by far the largest opposition movement, is outlawed but tolerated as long as it adheres to its decades-old platform of nonviolence.  It has an extensive social welfare network and indirectly controls one-fifth of the seats in parliament.  It probably would do very well if there were to be free and fair elections, although in the past couple of years it has lost momentum due to mass arrests of its members and internal tensions.

MB on 16 January announced the election of Mohammed Badie as its new supreme leader.  With a view toward preserving the movement, he made clear that he would not provoke the regime by creating a political party or staging turbulent street protests.  Yet the regime fired a shot across Badie’s bow by subsequently arresting several leading MB members, keeping up its policy of hounding the group through incarceration.     

Badie, a professor of veterinary pathology who was jailed for agitation in the 1960s, also is expected to try to bridge internal differences between firebrands, many of whom are aging, and modernizers, who tend to be younger.  The Old Guard prevailed in a mid-December election of the MB’s shura (council).

MB and other opposition elements have criticized the Mubarak regime for supporting Israel’s economic blockade of Gaza, which is ruled by Hamas, MB’s Palestinian branch.  The regime’s Gaza policy is deeply unpopular among ordinary Egyptians, and there were passionate demonstrations during Israel’s military offensive against Gaza in December 2008-January 2009.